• Posted January 9, 2026

Study Ties Rising Evictions to Higher Gun Violence in Chicago

Even as violent crime has dropped to historic lows in Chicago, gun violence remains a serious problem in some neighborhoods, especially those facing economic hardship.

A new study suggests one overlooked factor may help explain why: Evictions.

University of Chicago researchers found that neighborhoods with higher eviction rates also had more shootings. 

Their analysis showed that every 1% increase in a neighborhood’s eviction rate was linked to about 2.66 additional shootings.

The study — funded by the U.S. Department of Justice, the National Institutes of Health and the National Institute on Aging — was published recently in JAMA Network Open.

Past research has shown that gun violence is often concentrated in a small number of areas. 

A 2023 study of five major U.S. cities found that more than 55% of shootings happened in just 9% of census tracts. 

Small increases in poverty, unemployment or lack of health care were tied to the large jumps in firearm violence.

But not all struggling neighborhoods see the same levels of violence.

The new study suggests evictions may play a key role by weakening what researchers called "collective efficacy," or the shared belief among neighbors that they can work together and look out for one another.

“Evictions really break up communities, both for the people who are forced to move and for people who are losing their neighbors,” lead author Thomas Statchen, a medical student at the University of Chicago, said in a news release. “Here we can see that eviction rates not only impact these social characteristics but are associated with increased gun violence as well.”

To better understand neighborhood dynamics, the researchers used data from the Healthy Chicago Survey, an annual survey run by the city’s health department. 

It asks Chicagoans about issues such as safety, access to services, mental health and how connected they feel to their neighbors.

Some questions focus on whether people know neighbors well enough to ask for help or believe they can work together to improve their community.

The study found that strong social bonds can protect neighborhoods from gun violence, even when residents face poverty and other challenges.

Senior author Dr. Elizabeth Tung, an associate professor of medicine, said this shows that disadvantaged neighborhoods often have more resilience than people suspect.

“The root cause is still poverty, and it's by force of nature that some communities are able to form such strong, resilient bonds to withstand structural disadvantages and economic challenges like eviction that lead to firearm violence,” she said in a news release.

Evictions are common across the U.S. Between 2007 and 2016, more than 7.6 million people each year faced the threat of eviction and more than 3.6 million were forcibly removed from their homes.

Black women are especially affected, and eviction has been linked to higher stress, depression, financial hardship, higher maternal death rates, fewer calls for city services and even lower voter turnout.

Because evictions are influenced by local laws and housing policies, researchers said cities can take steps to reduce harm, even if solving poverty itself feels impossible.

For example, local governments could limit rent increases or expand public housing, Statchen and Tung said.

“The policies that we use to govern poverty say something about what we value in society,” Tung said. “People often say there will always be poverty, but even if that’s true, we can change policies to increase the levers of opportunity and make poverty escapable rather than inescapable. Eviction is just so devastating and life-changing, especially for children. So, it’s a great place to start in terms of thinking through how we handle poverty.”

More information

The Eviction Lab has more on eviction.

SOURCE: University of Chicago Medical Center, news release, Jan. 7, 2026